Goldman Sachs sees core US tariff rate rising to 15%

Goldman Sachs economists expect the US core tariff rate to rise from 10% to 15%, alongside a 50% levy on copper and critical minerals, a move they say would fuel inflation and weigh on economic growth.

The investment bank also revised its forecasts for US inflation and GDP to reflect assumptions about the new trade policy.

David Mericle, Goldman’s chief US economist, told Bloomberg that the main lesson from tariffs so far is that their impact on consumer prices appears slightly lower than in 2019, although it remains too early to fully assess the effects.

As a result, Goldman now expects core inflation to reach 3.3% in 2025, down slightly from its previous estimate of 3.4%, before easing to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.

Cumulatively, tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices by about 1.7% over two to three years.

In terms of economic impact, the bank projects tariffs could reduce US GDP growth by around 1% in 2025, 0.4% in 2026, and 0.3% in 2027. As a result, Goldman forecasts just 1% GDP growth in 2025.