Oil price rise was expected; prices seen returning to $75: Kpler

Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said the initial rise in oil prices to around $80 a barrel was expected, given the escalating geopolitical tensions.

The next phase will depend on whether Iran targets regional oil facilities, especially production sites, he told Argaam.

The market could see a very short-lived rally; however, the downside trend currently remains more likely.

Falakshahi expects prices to retreat to around $75 per barrel by March 6, rather than surpassing $90 per barrel, despite the recent geopolitical tensions in the region.

The company’s base-case scenario assumes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within the coming hours (March 2 or 3), if the US succeeds in targeting facilities affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps through missiles directed toward the Strait of Hormuz.

Such a move could ease supply concerns, he said.

The global supply surplus, along with decisions by the OPEC+ alliance, is helping to cap sharp price spikes and serving as a balancing factor against ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Sharp slowdown in Strait of Hormuz transit

Data from Kpler showed that the number of tankers sailing eastbound through the Strait of Hormuz (from the Gulf to destinations outside the region) dropped to just three vessels on March 1, compared to 15 on Feb. 27 and 18 on Feb. 28.

Shipments on March 1 included one crude tanker carrying about two million barrels, 506,000 barrels of clean petroleum products (CPP), and 307,000 barrels of dirty petroleum products (DPP).

According to the data, total eastbound volumes reached 2.81 million barrels, down from 21.01 million barrels on Feb. 27 and 21.64 million barrels on Feb. 28, reflecting a sharp decline in transit activity.

The number of departing crude tankers fell from 10–11 vessels per day two days earlier to just one vessel, signaling an initial rush to accelerate shipments ahead of rising risks, followed by a clear slowdown as operating conditions deteriorated.

The company noted that the data is based on AIS signal tracking and does not include vessels operating with dark signals or cases of signal disruption or potential manipulation.

About 86% below the 2026 average

The data showed that average daily flows stood at around 19.81 million barrels per day (bpd) since the start of 2026, meaning March 1 levels were approximately 86% below the average recorded through the end of February.

Falakshahi added that the slowdown reflects friction in flows rather than a complete halt in exports. However, a continued gap between loadings within the Gulf and eastbound departures could result in shipment delays and higher freight and insurance costs.

706 tankers in exposure zones

Tracking data as of March 2 showed that 706 non-Iranian tankers were spread across the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea, underscoring congestion and slower transit activity.

Source: Kpler Data