OPEC cuts global oil demand forecast for Q2 2026

Logo of OPEC

OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the second quarter of 2026, citing the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East on consumption rates.

In its monthly report released Monday, the Vienna-based organization projected global oil demand to reach approximately 105.07 million barrels per day (bpd), down from its previous estimate of 105.57 million bpd.

However, OPEC maintained its 2026 global demand growth forecast unchanged at approximately 1.4 million bpd, supported by robust demand from non-OECD countries.

The organization’s quarterly year-on-year growth projections for global oil demand are: 1.5 million bpd for Q1, nearly 900,000 bpd for Q2 2026, and around 1.6 million bpd for Q3 2026.

Meanwhile, OPEC kept its forecast for oil supply growth from outside the OPEC+ alliance steady at 600,000 bpd for both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by production in Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.