Middle East crisis reshapes global gas market: IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the ongoing Middle East crisis to reshape the global natural gas landscape, as tensions have triggered a major supply shock, disrupting market fundamentals and delaying the anticipated wave of new LNG flows.

Estimates indicate that damage to infrastructure in Qatar will delay the global LNG expansion boom by at least two years, potentially leading to a cumulative supply loss of up to 120 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030.

According to the report released Friday, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have reduced global LNG supply by nearly 20% since early March, triggering sharp price increases in Asia and Europe to their highest levels since January 2023, which in turn has led to weaker demand in key importing markets.

The crisis has also reversed the market rebalancing trend observed during the 2025/2026 winter season, after strong LNG supply growth—supported by new liquefaction capacity, particularly in North America—had previously driven prices down by around 25%.