Oil jumps over 3%, Brent closes above $107

Oil prices rose at the close of trading today, May 12, as hopes for peace in the Middle East faded and concerns mounted about prolonged disruptions to global supplies, following sharp disagreements between the US and Iran over a proposal to end the war.

Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 3.42%, or $3.56, to $107.77 a barrel. WTI crude oil futures for June delivery also rose by 4.19%, or $4.11, to $102.18 a barrel.

US President Donald Trump described the ceasefire agreement with Iran as dying, pointing to wide gaps related to Tehran’s demands to stop hostilities on all fronts.

This divergence in positions threatens to perpetuate the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted would extend until late May, asserting that a return to pre-conflict trade and oil production patterns may not be achieved before late 2026 or early 2027.

The EIA estimated the volume of production lost in the Middle East at about 10.5 million barrels per day during the past month, noting that global oil inventories will decrease by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, a wide difference from its previous estimates that indicated a decrease of only 300,000 barrels.