S&P Global forecasts Saudi GDP growth at 2.6% in 2026

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's flag

S&P Global Ratings expects the Saudi economy to post the strongest growth among GCC countries in 2026, with GDP projected to expand 2.6%.

In a recent report, the ratings agency said its base-case scenario assumes tensions in the Gulf region will gradually ease, with oil shipments recovering to an average of 75% of pre-war volumes in H2 2026. It expects Brent crude to average $110 per barrel for the rest of 2026 before declining to $80 per barrel in 2027.

S&P Global added that the continued Hajj and Umrah seasons helped limit the impact of regional tensions on the tourism sector, while domestic tourism offset much of the decline in international visitors, strengthening Saudi Arabia's long-term tourism prospects.

The agency also said the Kingdom's real estate sector is more resilient than those of some GCC peers, owing to a higher share of Saudi homebuyers, which reduces risks associated with fluctuations in foreign investment.

Despite forecasting construction costs to rise 5%-8% in 2026, S&P Global said Saudi Arabia continues to advance 421 projects worth a combined $168 billion, highlighting sustained investment momentum.