Fitch affirms US credit rating at ‘AA+’ with stable outlook

Fitch Ratings affirmed the United States’ sovereign credit rating at ‘AA+’ with a stable outlook, citing the economy’s strength and scale and the financing flexibility provided by the dollar’s role as a global reserve currency, despite elevated fiscal pressures.

The agency expects the government deficit to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026, compared with around 6.8% in 2025. Efforts to reduce the deficit through spending controls would remain limited, it said, given that non-defense spending accounts for less than 15% of total spending.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 123% by end-2028. The debt ratio is projected to rise to 128% by 2030.

Fitch expects the $41.1 trillion debt ceiling to be reached in mid-2027.

The US rating was downgraded from ‘AAA’ to ‘AA+’ in August 2023 due to a worsening debt burden and political polarization.

While the economy’s strength supports the rating, Fitch pointed to slowing demand for labor and a notable decline in job creation during 2026.

US public finances continue to face structural challenges, including high deficits and rising debt-servicing costs.

The key question remains: Can Washington contain the upward debt trajectory before it undermines the exceptional flexibility afforded by the dollar’s global dominance?