Middle East oil exports exceed pre-war levels

Middle East crude oil exports exceeded pre-war levels on four days in late September, despite continued security risks and attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

Middle East crude oil exports rose above pre-war levels on four days during the final week of September, ranging between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd), despite continued attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Exports exceeded pre-war levels on Sept. 24 and from Sept. 27-29. Average crude exports stood at 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026, before the war with Iran broke out, preliminary data from vessel-tracking company Kpler showed.

The seven-day moving average of crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on Oct. 1. The data covers shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as terminal exports and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Tankers were involved in at least seven incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz, said shipping intelligence firm Marisks, adding that commercial vessels face an increasing and unpredictable threat while transiting the strait.

This means that higher oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz indicate that supplies continue to move despite security risks. However, escalating attacks could increase transit costs and the risk of shipping disruptions, particularly as vessel traffic intensifies.