From Barrel to Token: A Fifth Person at the Table

✍️Islam Zween

Yusr had already closed his notebook when Firas walked in.

He sat down facing Nour, Aman and Safaa, and laid his project on the table. “I need stable electricity around the clock. I’m going to build computing centres for artificial intelligence and sell their services to the world.”

Nour straightened in her chair, drew a sheet of paper from the file and said: “The gas you need is in my accounts too. We are counting on it to replace oil in power stations, so that we can free barrels for export.”

“I know,” said Firas. “But I want to use it to build another source of income.”

And so Yusr had to open his notebook again.

These are the characters of our article on gaps between systems. Nour is responsible for energy, Aman for the grid, Safaa for sustainability and Yusr for finance. Back then, the question was how decisions that are each right within their own remit can add up to an outcome no one intended.

This time, Firas has brought an opportunity that needs all of their resources. And to be fair, it deserves a hearing. Diversifying the economy can start from the advantage that built its old income. The energy that helps Saudi Arabia export oil can also power a business that sells its services to the world.

But will the supplies each plan relies on be enough for all the plans, and in time?

Nour placed her sheet in the middle of the table. “At a reference tariff of 18 halalah per kilowatt-hour, the bill for a megawatt-hour comes to $48. If that electricity is generated from gas, the gas needed holds as much energy as oil worth $106–116, using the second-quarter 2026 oil price and the generation-efficiency assumptions in the calculation. That is the value of the oil with the same energy content, not the cost of producing the electricity.”

Firas looked at the sheet. “You’ve calculated the value of the oil that could be saved. But where is the value of the service I’ll sell?”

“That’s what we’re waiting for from you, my friend,” said Yusr. “How much will you produce with this electricity? How much will you sell? And what stays inside the Kingdom after costs?”

Firas’s objection was valid. The electricity bill is not enough to measure his project’s return to the economy. Equally, matching energy content does not mean barrels are automatically available for export.

That requires gas to be able to replace oil, and the barrels saved to be sold. If that happens, a barrel that is no longer burned in power stations goes to export without any increase in production, and without touching the Kingdom’s share in OPEC+. The tariff itself is a reference, not a published price for any particular project. So the gap between the two figures does not prove that computing loses money. It does raise the question of what else the energy could have earned.

Aman asked: “Do you need the same capacity at peak times, or can you shift some of your work to hours when there is surplus?” Safaa added: “And if we add renewables and storage, how much does your need for gas change?”

The questions began to change the project’s sums. Then comes the customer: why would they choose Firas’s service, and at what price? The market may grow and prices for the service fall, while the hardware needs continual reinvestment. Gigawatts measure the capacity we build. On their own, they do not reveal the income we will earn.

Supporting the business in its early days may be a deliberate choice, to build expertise or strategic capability. But that needs a goal and a set period for review, so we know what has been achieved in return for the resources committed. The allocation of energy could also be tied to the value that stays inside the Kingdom, and to the project’s ability to move its load away from peak hours.

Yusr left his notebook open. And here the test of the “new oil” idea begins: if gas can free oil for export, how much do we earn by using it to produce and sell AI services instead?

How many tokens, the units of text an AI model processes, can be produced and sold with the energy of one barrel of oil? And what return stays with Saudi Arabia after the cost of hardware, software and operation?

The four waited for Firas to put his numbers on the table.

Click here to read the full study