Saudi Arabia’s GDP is expected to grow 1.7 percent in 2018 backed by a 1.8 percent growth in non-oil private sector and increased government spending this year, Riyad Capital said in a report.

 

The budget deficit is expected at SAR 215 billion this year, compared to SAR 230 billion in 2017.

 

“The fiscal deficit is expected to shrink to 8.0 percent of GDP in 2018 after 9.0 percent in 2017,” Riyad Capital added.

 

The Kingdom is implementing a serious of economic reforms, which are expected to have a short-term impact on economic activity, the firm added. These reforms include a value-added tax (VAT), the lifting of fuel subsidies, higher power tariffs, and fees on expats.

 

The implemented reforms have impacted Saudi inflation, which picked up in January to 3.0 percent.

 

Riyad Capital Estimates

Period

2017

2018

Actual GDP

(0.7%)

+1.7%

Non-oil private sector GDP

+0.7%

+1.8%

Public sector GDP

+1.7%

+2.0%

Oil sector GDP

(3.0%)

+1.5%

Public finances balance

(230)

(215)

Financial Balance (% from GDP)

(9.0%)

(8.0%)

Public debt (SAR bln)

438

568

Public debt (% from GDP)

17.1%

21.0%

Brent Crude Price ($ per barrel)

54.8

63.0

Consumer prices inflation index

(0.2%)

+5.2%

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