IEA expects weaker oil demand in 2024

Oil drilling rigs

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil demand growth is anticipated to weaken next year, reflecting the slowdown in major world economies in the wake of soaring interest rates.

In its monthly report issued today, Dec. 14, the agency noted that global oil demand growth is likely to halve to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, with the average daily demand reaching 102.8 million bpd through the year.

The outlook for 2024 was raised by 130,000 bpd compared with previous estimates.

"The increasingly apparent loss of oil-demand growth momentum reflects the deterioration in the macroeconomic climate — in the wake of higher interest rates as well as the fading rebound from COVID-induced lows," read the report.

Record oil supplies from the US (exceeding 20 million bpd), Brazil and Guyana during the current year, along with surging Iranian flows, are bound to lift world output by 1.8 million bpd to 101.9 million bpd in 2023, according to IEA.

Non-OPEC countries’ oil supplies are predicted to lead growth of global oil output in 2024, reaching 1.2 million bpd next year, after factoring in the voluntary OPEC+ production cuts.