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Goldman Sachs expects the global oil market to face significant surpluses this year and next, as trade tensions weigh on crude demand and OPEC+ eases supply curbs.
In a note cited by Bloomberg, the bank’s analysts projected a surplus of 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, followed by a larger surplus of around 1.4 million bpd in 2026.
The forecast comes as oil prices dropped in April to their lowest in four years amid escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, raising fears of a global economic slowdown.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average $63 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 in a base-case scenario that assumes no US recession and a modest increase in OPEC+ supply.
The bank also sees global oil demand rising by just 300,000 bpd this year.
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