Goldman Sachs estimates geopolitical risk premium at $10/barrel for Brent

Oil barrels

Goldman Sachs’ base-case scenario expects Brent crude prices to decline to around $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, assuming no supply disruptions.

In a note issued Wednesday, the US investment bank estimated the geopolitical risk premium at approximately $10 per barrel. This comes after Brent prices climbed to between $76 and $77 per barrel.

The increase appears justified amid concerns over Iranian supply disruptions and the possibility for Brent to surge above $90 in case of escalation.

This follows worries about possible disruptions in the Middle East's supply, where Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day, due to the ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran.

Meanwhile, Barclays Bank forecasts Brent crude prices to rise to $85 per barrel if Iranian exports halve, and prices could exceed $100 in the worst-case scenario of a wider war.