IEA says global oil supply hits record high

Global oil markets face conflicting pressures between supply risks and oversupply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its monthly report, citing ongoing sanctions on Russia and Iran alongside rising output from the OPEC+ alliance, which could swell global inventories.

The agency said global supply climbed to a record 106.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, driven by easing OPEC+ production curbs and non-OPEC output nearing all-time highs.

In its September report released Thursday, the IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 740,000 bpd, up from its previous estimate of 680,000 bpd.

Global oil production is now expected to rise by 2.7 million bpd to 105.8 million bpd in 2025, and by another 2.1 million bpd to 107.9 million bpd in 2026.

The agency said global inventories rose by 26.5 million barrels in July, bringing the year-to-date increase to 187 million barrels. Stocks remain about 67 million barrels below the five-year average, despite a sharp build-up in China in recent months.

The IEA added that any shifts in sanctions or geopolitical conflicts could reshape market balances, leaving price and supply forecasts highly vulnerable to sharp swings in the coming period.