IEA boosts 2024 oil demand forecast, cuts 2025 outlook

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International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 but downgraded its projections for 2025 due to weak Chinese consumption.

In its monthly report released today, Nov. 14, the IEA expects global oil demand to grow by 921,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, up from its previous estimate of 862,000 bpd. This revision is attributed to higher petroleum product deliveries to OECD countries.

However, the Paris-based agency revised its 2025 demand growth forecast down to 990,000 bpd from 998,000 bpd in the previous report, citing the negative impact of the Chinese economic slowdown on oil consumption.

The report also noted that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by more than 1 million bpd next year, even if the OPEC+ coalition maintains its voluntary production cuts.

It pointed out that China's oil consumption fell by 70,000 bpd in September compared to the same month last year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. Third-quarter consumption was also 270,000 bpd lower than in the same period of 2023.