JPMorgan maintains $60 oil price forecast for 2026

JPMorgan upheld its forecast for average oil prices in 2025 and 2026, despite recent geopolitical tensions.

However, that extreme scenarios could potentially double oil prices, it noted.

In a memo published today, June 12, the US-based lender reiterated its expectation for average oil prices in 2025 to range between $60 and $65 per barrel.

It also kept its 2026 forecast unchanged at an average of $60 a barrel, emphasizing that current prices already partially account for geopolitical risk premiums.

Geopolitical tensions have risen again after US President Donald Trump announced on June 11 that the US has begun evacuating some of its military personnel from the Middle East due to potential risks. He reaffirmed that the US will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

JPMorgan highlighted several worst-case scenarios that could significantly affect global oil supply, beyond the existing disruption of Iran's 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in exports. Among these is the possibility of an expanded regional conflict leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices could spike to levels between $120 and $130 per barrel in such a scenario, it added.