Jadwa Investment expects non-oil GDP to grow 4.3% in 2025

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Jadwa Investment expects Saudi Arabia’s real non-oil GDP to grow by 4.3% in 2025, supported by strong domestic demand, robust credit growth, and ongoing efforts to diversify the economy across various sectors.

In a report, the advisory firm also projected that the Kingdom's crude oil production would rise by 5.5% to an average of 9.45 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, compared to an average of 9 million barrels per day in 2024.

In addition, Brent crude prices are expected to average $67 per barrel in 2025, a 16% decline from the 2024 average, and $65 per barrel in 2026, citing global supply outpacing demand.

Jadwa noted that oil prices remain the key source of uncertainty in its forecasts, but emphasized that Saudi Arabia is well positioned to withstand periods of oil market weakness.

The research firm expects a slight uptick in inflation in the second half of 2025, with average inflation rising to 2.4%, driven by moderate increases in food prices aligned with global trends.

Jadwa maintained its inflation forecast at 2.3% for 2025, followed by a slight decline to 2.1% in 2026.

Jadwa Investment - Non-Oil GDP 13/07/2025