EIA raises outlook for OPEC production capacity

The EIA raised its estimates for OPEC crude oil production capacity

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its estimates for OPEC crude oil production capacity in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, based on updated definitions of production capacity.

The revision increases the group’s average effective production capacity by about 0.37 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and roughly 0.31 million bpd in 2026, with similar increases in spare capacity, as current forecasts for OPEC output remain largely unchanged.

The agency said sustainable maximum production capacity represents the highest level of output achievable within a year under full use of infrastructure and in the absence of disruptions, while effective production capacity reflects the level of output that can be reached within 90 days and sustained without damaging oil facilities.

It said disruptions include any unplanned production outages resulting from wars, sanctions, strikes, natural disasters, or unexpected technical failures, while voluntary production cuts are not considered disruptions.

A decline in spare capacity, the gap between actual output and effective capacity, could put upward pressure on crude oil prices in the event of unexpected supply disruptions or strong growth in global oil demand.