Fitch sees Brent falling to $70 if peace deal holds

An onshore oil rig. Fitch said the path to the US-Iran peace deal remains fraught with challenges.

Fitch Ratings warned of elevated risks that could prevent the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but expects oil prices to decline to $70 per barrel by the end of 2026 if the US-Iran peace deal succeeds.

In its report, Fitch said the path to the agreement remains fraught with challenges, warning that political opposition that emerges immediately after the deal's details are disclosed could obstruct its completion. It also highlighted the risk of understandings collapsing if the military conflict between Israel and Lebanon resumes, putting the future of the agreement at stake.

Fitch said Friday’s agreement may fail to address the root causes of regional tensions, leaving the door open to a renewed conflict. Despite the move toward de-escalation, the agency believes the likelihood of US or Israeli military operations against Iran remains significant.

The agency concluded its analysis with oil price forecasts, expecting Brent crude prices to decline to $70 per barrel by Q4 2026, provided a stability scenario materializes and normal oil shipping through the strait resumes.