Abundant global oil supplies despite rising geopolitical risks: IEA

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the global oil market to experience an energy glut and shortage in 2025, barring major changes, despite geopolitical issues in the Middle East, which have completely overshadowed global energy.

In its June Oil Market Outlook report, the agency explained that global oil demand is expected to rise by 720,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decrease of 20,000 bpd from last month's forecast.

It added in its report published Tuesday that oil supply is anticipated to rise by 1.8 million bpd this year, an increase of 200,000 bpd from last month's estimates.

The agency also forecasts that refining rates will rise by about 460,000 bpd in both 2025 and 2026, reaching averages of 83.3 and 83.7 million bpd, respectively.

Global oil demand could peak as early as 2027, driven by shifts in consumption patterns and clean energy policies. China is also expected to reach peak oil consumption in the same year, reflecting a slowdown in demand growth in the world's second-largest economy, the agency added.

As the global oil demand is expected to rise by 2.5 million bpd between 2024 and 2030, reaching 105.5 million bpd by the end of the decade, with global oil production capacity rising by more than 5 million bpd to 114.7 million bpd by 2030.