World oil market to see higher surplus: IEA

IEA expects higher oil surplus worldwide in 2025 and 2026

World oil supply will rise more rapidly than previously expected this year, and a surplus could expand in 2026 as OPEC+ members and other producers lift output and demand remains sluggish, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted on Tuesday.

The agency's report indicated that total global oil supply increased by 760,000 barrels per day (bpd) month-on-month (MoM), reaching 108 million bpd in September, with OPEC+ production increasing by 1 million bpd.

Supply will rise by 3.0 million bpd in 2025, up from 2.7 million bpd previously forecast, the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report. Next year it will rise by a further 2.4 million bpd, it said.

Global oil supply is expected to rise by 3 million bpd to 106.1 million bpd in 2005, and 2.4 million bpd in 2026.

Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to increase their production by 1.6 million bpd this year and 1.2 million bpd in 2026, led by Brazil, the US, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina.

OPEC+ is expected to add 1.4 million bpd in 2025 and 1.2 million bpd next year, based on the current agreement.

The Paris-based agency explained that global oil demand rose by 750,000 bpd year-on-year (YoY) in Q3 2025, compared to the 420,000 bpd recorded in Q2 2025. However, oil use will remain low for the remainder of 2025 and 2026.